Rolling 12 months · Claude Opus 5.5 + Perplexity
Will AI agents be able to write prescriptions nation-wide in the next 12 months?
Updated daily. Each point is a new forecast with fresh research—not a forecast of the same fixed deadline. These forecasts are never graded and do not enter the benchmark.
Latest chance of YES
2%
Change from previous
+0.5 pp
Last forecast
Oct 23, 2026
Horizon ends Oct 23, 2027
Probability over time
Working definition
Federal law, regulation, or FDA/DEA action takes effect allowing an autonomous AI agent (without a human clinician signing each prescription) to prescribe medications to patients in all 50 U.S. states. State-by-state pilots, AI that only drafts prescriptions for human sign-off, or proposed but not enacted legislation are not sufficient.
Latest forecast
Only bounded Utah sandbox pilots exist. H.R. 238 has not moved since referral in January 2025, and even if enacted it would still require state authorization plus FDA action, so it would not grant all-50-state authority. No federal regulation or FDA/DEA pathway for autonomous AI prescribing is pending, and state licensure law makes nationwide authority within 12 months extremely unlikely.
Research dossier and forecast criteria
For this forecast, YES means AI agents first become legally able to write prescriptions nationwide in the United States after 2026-10-23 and on or before 2027-10-23. Federal law, regulation, or FDA/DEA action takes effect allowing an autonomous AI agent (without a human clinician signing each prescription) to prescribe medications to patients in all 50 U.S. states. State-by-state pilots, AI that only drafts prescriptions for human sign-off, or proposed but not enacted legislation are not sufficient.
Research by Perplexity Sonar Searches run: DEA artificial intelligence autonomous prescribing prescriptions policy 2026 | AI agents prescribe medication nationwide United States federal law 2026 | DEA telemedicine prescribing rules October 2026 controlled substances extension | FDA AI clinical decision software prescribing autonomous medical device policy 2026 | state laws artificial intelligence prescribing medication United States 2026 | site:congress.gov Healthy Technology Act 2025 H.R. 238 AI prescribe status | site:dea.gov AI prescribing practitioner autonomous artificial intelligence prescription 2026 | site:federalregister.gov DEA telemedicine special registration final rule 2026 AI prescribing | site:congress.gov autonomous AI prescribing medication bill 2026 federal | site:fda.gov AI prescribing autonomous agent prescriptions FDA 2026 | Utah AI prescription pilot Doctronic 2026 October autonomous prescription Reuters AP | August AI Nolla Health Utah October 13 2026 prescription pilot official | Executive Order 14365 December 2025 AI state laws official White House | FDA autonomous AI prescribing no authorization October 2026 FDA official statement | AI physician prescribing state licensing federal law nationwide 2026 Reuters --- BRIEFING --- ### State of play As of October 23, 2026, the clearest U.S. examples of AI prescribing are limited Utah regulatory-sandbox pilots—not a nationwide authorization. Utah’s official pilot listing says Doctronic’s system handles renewals of existing prescriptions for specified medications; it cannot issue new prescriptions, change treatment plans, or handle controlled substances. The pilot remains in Phase 1, where a licensed practitioner authorizes every request; Phase 2 has not been approved. Its agreement runs through October 24, 2026, with renewal subject to state review. [23][26] Utah has also approved Nolla Health to issue first-time and renewal prescriptions for a limited list of topical acne treatments to eligible adults. Its agreement runs October 5, 2026–October 5, 2027. August AI’s approved refill pilot, by contrast, had not yet begun its demonstration period as of the state’s listing. These are Utah-specific agreements; they do not establish authority in the other states. [23] Federal law and regulation remain a separate constraint. The DEA/HHS temporary telemedicine rule allows a DEA-registered practitioner to prescribe Schedule II–V controlled substances remotely under stated conditions through December 31, 2026; the rule’s authorization is for practitioners, not autonomous AI agents. [2][12] The reviewed sources identify no federal law, regulation, or FDA/DEA action taking effect that generally recognizes autonomous AI agents as prescribers nationwide. [2][3][11] ### Actors, mechanics and timetable Federal legislation that directly addresses AI eligibility to prescribe is H.R. 238, the Healthy Technology Act of 2025. It would amend the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act so AI or machine-learning technology could qualify as a practitioner if authorized under the relevant state’s law and approved, cleared, or authorized by FDA. Congress.gov lists it as introduced on January 7, 2025, and referred to the House Energy and Commerce Committee, with no later action shown. The bill therefore is not enacted and, as written, would depend on state authorization as well as FDA action; it does not itself provide a blanket 50-state permission. [11] FDA’s digital-health guidance page lists final guidance on clinical decision support software issued January 29, 2026, and general-wellness policy issued January 6, 2026. The available FDA listing describes guidance, not a nationwide authorization for autonomous prescription writing. [3] Utah’s Office of Artificial Intelligence Policy and relevant state agencies administer the sandbox agreements, which provide limited, specified state regulatory relief; they do not waive federal law. [4][23] A further federal timing issue concerns controlled drugs: the current temporary telemedicine flexibility expires at the end of December 31, 2026. The Federal Register rule describes a proposed DEA “Special Registration for Telemedicine” framework for practitioners, but the source does not show a final rule establishing an autonomous-AI prescribing pathway. [12][15] No source reviewed provided a scheduled congressional vote or federal rulemaking deadline for nationwide autonomous AI prescribing. ### Signals and constraints Recent Utah actions show expansion of experimentation: the state’s listing records Nolla Health’s active acne-prescribing pilot and August AI’s approved but not-yet-started refill pilot. The structure remains bounded by state agreements, medication limits, eligibility criteria, and staged oversight. [23] Reporting on the Utah pilots likewise describes them as state sandbox experiments, not a national policy change. [28][30] The federal policy backdrop is not specific to prescribing. Executive Order 14365, issued December 11, 2025, directs federal officials to challenge certain state AI laws and calls for development of a national AI legislative framework. The order does not itself authorize AI to prescribe medication. [22][24] A recent legal analysis also cautions that state sandbox relief does not waive federal obligations, including applicable FDA requirements. [4] The sources reviewed do not establish a published federal timetable for creating nationwide autonomous-prescribing authority, nor a final FDA or DEA decision authorizing it. [3][11][12] --- SOURCES --- [2] Prescribing controlled substances via telehealth Source: telehealth.hhs.gov Published: 2026-01-05 Last updated: 2026-10-02 URL: https://telehealth.hhs.gov/providers/telehealth-policy/prescribing-controlled-substances-via-telehealth # Prescribing controlled substances via telehealth Authorized providers are able to prescribe controlled substances via telehealth if they meet certain criteria. The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), jointly with the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), has extended the full set of telemedicine flexibilities regarding the prescribing… [3] Guidances with Digital Health Content | FDA Source: fda.gov Published: 2026-10-04 Last updated: 2026-10-02 URL: https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/digital-health-center-excellence/guidances-digital-health-content # Guidances with Digital Health Content The guidance documents listed here are FDA guidances with Digital Health content and are intended to provide clarity on the FDA's regulation of digital health products. ### List of FDA Guidance Documents with Digital Health Content |Issue Date|Guidance|Guidance Status| |--|--|--| |01/29/2026|Clinical Decision… [4] The AI Doctor Will See You Now: Chatbot Risks and ... Source: hklaw.com Published: 2026-10-19 Last updated: 2026-10-19 URL: https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2026/10/the-ai-doctor-will-see-you-now-chatbot-risks-regulatory-oversight - Federal requirements remain an important part of the regulatory landscape. Depending on an AI tool's intended use and functionality, telehealth companies may need to consider U.S. Food and Drug Administration medical device requirements, federal prescribing restrictions and other healthcare obligations alongside state law. ... In March 2026, Utah… [11] Text - H.R.238 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Healthy Technology Act of 2025 Source: congress.gov Published: 2025-07-01 Last updated: 2026-10-11 URL: https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/238/text # H.R.238 - Healthy Technology Act of 2025 119th Congress (2025-2026) | Get alerts ## Bill |Sponsor:|Rep. Schweikert, David [R-AZ-1] (Introduced 01/07/2025)| ... |Committees:|House - Energy and Commerce| |Latest Action:|House - 01/07/2025 Referred to the House Committee on Energy and Commerce. (All Actions)| |Tracker: Tip|This bill has the status I… [12] [XML] 2025-24123.xml - Federal Register Source: federalregister.gov Published: unknown Last updated: 2026-03-11 URL: https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/full_text/xml/2025/12/31/2025-24123.xml SUMMARY: The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) jointly with the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) is issuing a fourth extension of telemedicine flexibilities for the prescribing of controlled medications through December 31, 2026. DATES: This rule is effective January 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026. ... On January 17, 2025, DEA p… [15] Federal Register, Volume 90 Issue 247 (Wednesday, December 31 ... Source: federalregister.gov Published: unknown Last updated: 2026-09-06 URL: https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/full_text/text/2025/12/31/2025-24123.txt SUMMARY: The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) jointly with the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) is issuing a fourth extension of telemedicine flexibilities for the prescribing of controlled medications through December 31, 2026. DATES: This rule is effective January 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026. ... The Special Registration f… [22] Ensuring a National Policy Framework for Artificial ... Source: whitehouse.gov Published: 2025-12-11 Last updated: 2026-10-23 URL: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/12/eliminating-state-law-obstruction-of-national-artificial-intelligence-policy/ # ENSURING A NATIONAL POLICY FRAMEWORK FOR ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ... December 11, 2025 Executive Order 14365 ... Within 30 days of the date of this order, the Attorney General shall establish an AI Litigation Task Force (Task Force) whose sole responsibility shall be to challenge State AI laws inconsistent with the policy set forth in section 2 o… [23] Authorized AI Pilots - Utah Department of Commerce Source: commerce.utah.gov Published: 2026-10-06 Last updated: 2026-10-06 URL: https://commerce.utah.gov/ai/regulatory-relief-4/authorized-pilots/ ### August AI Approved Prescription refills - **Signed** October 2, 2026 - **Term** The demonstration period has not started yet. - **Co-signed with** ... August AI, operated by August Labs, Inc., offers an AI health companion app. The pilot lets its system authorize routine 30, 60, and 90 day refills of maintenance medication a Utah adult is alrea… [24] Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Ensures a National ... Source: whitehouse.gov Published: 2025-12-12 Last updated: 2026-10-23 URL: https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/12/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-ensures-a-national-policy-framework-for-artificial-intelligence/ December 11, 2025 **PREVENTING A PATCHWORK OF AI REGULATIONS:** Today, President Donald J. Trump signed an Executive Order to protect American AI innovation from an inconsistent and costly compliance regime resulting from varying State laws. - The Order directs the Attorney General to establish an AI Litigation Task Force to challenge unconstitutio… [26] Office of AI Policy: Doctronic RMA - commerce.utah.gov Source: commerce.utah.gov Published: 2026-06-18 Last updated: 2026-10-02 URL: https://commerce.utah.gov/ai/regulatory-relief-4/authorized-pilots/doctronic/ The Utah Office of Artificial Intelligence Policy (OAIP) has approved a new pilot program with Doctronic a health technology company using AI to simplify the prescription refill process. Through this initiative, Doctronic’s AI will strive to automate routine, guideline-based prescription renewals—the kind of administrative work that often slows dow… [28] Utah OKs 3 Health-AI Pilot Apps for 'Regulatory Sandbox' Source: bankinfosecurity.com Published: 2026-10-21 Last updated: 2026-10-21 URL: https://www.bankinfosecurity.com/utah-oks-3-health-ai-pilot-apps-for-regulatory-sandbox-a-33165 # Utah OKs 3 Health-AI Pilot Apps for 'Regulatory Sandbox' Utah has approved three more healthcare AI pilots for its "AI regulatory sandbox," including projects for medication prescriptions, refills, and physical therapy. ... The state of Utah has given the green light for three more healthcare technology companies to test how their artificial inte… [30] Utah's AI physician experiment expands: What to know Source: beckershospitalreview.com Published: 2026-10-09 Last updated: 2026-10-23 URL: https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/healthcare-information-technology/ai/utahs-ai-physician-experiment-expands-what-to-know/ The first prescribing pilot came from Doctronic. The office approved a yearlong pilot in October 2025 letting the company’s AI renew prescriptions for 192 common medications for chronic conditions, and the state publicly announced it Jan. 6. The AI cannot issue new prescriptions, change treatment plans or renew controlled substances. ... Utah widen…
Daily forecast history (3)
Oct 23, 2026 · 2% YESthrough Oct 23, 2027
Only bounded Utah sandbox pilots exist. H.R. 238 has not moved since referral in January 2025, and even if enacted it would still require state authorization plus FDA action, so it would not grant all-50-state authority. No federal regulation or FDA/DEA pathway for autonomous AI prescribing is pending, and state licensure law makes nationwide authority within 12 months extremely unlikely.
Oct 22, 2026 · 1.5% YESthrough Oct 22, 2027
Nationwide autonomous AI prescribing would require federal law or regulation that overrides state licensing, and the only relevant bill (H.R.238) has sat in committee since January 2025. That bill would also still depend on state authorization, so it would not cover all 50 states. Utah's pilot keeps 100% physician review and has drawn pushback from its own medical board, and the AMA opposes AI as a prescriber. The odds of enactment and implementation within 12 months are negligible.
Oct 21, 2026 · 2% YESthrough Oct 21, 2027
Nationwide autonomous AI prescribing would require federal action that overrides or satisfies state medical practice laws in all 50 states. The only federal bill, H.R. 238, has sat in committee since January 2025, dies when the Congress ends, and in any case conditions AI prescribing on state authorization. Current activity is limited to staged Utah sandbox pilots that still have physicians approving prescriptions, and the FDA has issued only discussion papers, not authorizations.